COVID-19: operators expect EBITDA margins to decline by low single digit percentage points in 2020

Most operators have temporarily suspended their financial guidance for 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, there is a general consensus that the COVID-19 outbreak will have a negative but temporary effect on EBITDA levels in 2020 (some operators believe that the percentage decline will be in the low single digits), and will lead to a slowdown in capex growth.

This podcast provides an overview of the impact that operators expect the COVID-19 crisis to have on their EBITDA and capex in 2020, based on reporting from over 15 operators, mostly in Europe and North America.

The associated article can be found here.

COVID-19: operators’ business revenue results from 1Q 2020 show that the crisis is starting to take effect

Operators’ quarterly investor reports for 1Q 2020 were filled with warning signs about the impact of the COVID-19 crisis. A temporary end to business travel, financial difficulties, business closures, rising unemployment, an increase in bad debt and the implications of a recession were all mentioned as concerns.

The crisis comes after what was a reasonably successful 2019. Indeed, many operators reversed negative revenue trends. The weighted average for business revenue growth increased from –0.6% worldwide in 2018 to 1.2% in 2019.¹ However, operators expect that business revenue will decline significantly in 2020.

The associated article can be found here.

The proposed O2–Virgin Media merger will significantly increase the level of fixed–mobile convergence in the UK

On 7 May 2020, Telefónica and Liberty Global agreed, subject to regulatory approval, to merge their UK operations in a 50:50 joint venture. The proposed merger will create a second converged operator in the UK market and is likely to increase pressure on standalone players. 

In this podcast, Analyst, Simon Lumb explores the strategic reasons driving the merger and explains how it is likely to affect fixed–mobile convergence retail offers in the UK retail market in future.

The associated article can be found here.

COVID-19 will only have short-term impacts on telecoms software and services vendors

In this podcast, Research Director, Dana Cooperson highlights that telecoms industry vendors will suffer short-term setbacks from COVID-19 as general shutdowns impede work and decision-making in 2Q 2020. However, the longer-term outlook for investment in the telecoms industry is positive, particularly in areas such as automation, virtualisation and cloud enablement.

The associated article can be found here.

COVID-19 will lead telecoms revenue to decline by 3.4% in developed markets in 2020

In this podcast Rupert Wood discusses Analysys Mason's initial attempt to quantify the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on various elements of the telecoms business including major revenue contributors and cost items.

The associated article can be found here.

There are six ways in which operators can improve their approach to SMEs

Many operators, particularly incumbents, have been reporting flat or declining business revenue, even before the COVID-19 crisis.

In this podcast, Analyst, Terry van Staden discusses the ways in which operators are exploring new opportunities in the small and medium-sized enterprise market.

The associated article can be found here.

Palo Alto Networks is hoping that its acquisition of SD-WAN firm CloudGenix is not too late

In this podcast Research Director, Tom Rebbeck discusses Palo Alto Networks' recent acquisition of SD-WAN firm CloudGenix. 

The associated article can be found here. 

COVID-19: IoT has a limited role in dealing with the current crisis, but could help with future pandemics

IoT has been absent from telecoms operators’ press releases about their actions regarding COVID-19. This is unsurprising because IoT accounts for only a small share of their revenue. Inevitably, COVID-19 will have a short-term impact on demand (many IoT projects are likely to be put on hold) and will lead to supply-side disruptions.

In this podcast, Principal Analyst, Michele Mackenzie discusses the longer-term opportunities for operators to explore, especially as governments prepare for future outbreaks.

The associated article can be found here.

All eyes are on Rakuten Mobile’s MNO launch, but it remains to be seen if its model will be successful

Rakuten Mobile is a subsidiary of the e-commerce, fintech and media company Rakuten, and has been an MVNO in Japan since October 2014. It has 2.3 million subscribers as of March 2020, making it the largest MVNO in its market. Rakuten Mobile announced that it will launch a new service as an MNO on 8 April 2020.

In this podcast, Senior Analyst, Rémy Pascal considers the details of Rakuten Mobile’s launch and outlines what the telecoms industry may learn from it.

The associated article can be found here. 

eUICCs and iSIMs will disrupt the IoT connectivity chain, but operators should see opportunities, not obstacles

eUICCs are increasingly being adopted in the IoT market, and the introduction of iSIMs is expected to follow in 2020 and 2021. eUICC users’ ability to switch providers remotely may increase IoT churn and put pressure on prices. iSIMs will cause further disruption by shifting power to the silicon players at the start of the connectivity value chain.

Operators will not be able to prevent the adoption of eUICCs and iSIMs for IoT; they must face the challenges head on and take advantage of the new opportunities. This article summarises the findings of our recent report, eUICC and iSIM for IoT: opportunities for operators.

The associated article can be found here.